Time to fulfill Nepali people's peace aspirations
Surya B. Prasai
July 20, 2010
A wise ruler ought never to keep faith when by doing so it would be against his interests, according to Machiavelli. A lot of confusion currently precedes the formation of Nepal´s next Federal Democratic Republic government. Nearly a month ago, the CPN-UML government led by Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned creating a power vacuum in Nepali politics. PM Nepal reluctantly caved into various demands put forth by the Maoists, but related, inter-alia, to deteriorating public security, power bickering in his coalition, major disagreements in concluding the Nepali peace process to be precluded by the rehabilitation of nearly 19,000 Maoist ex-combatants, and lack of desired consensus in drafting a new Nepali constitution by May 28, for which President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav reluctantly gave the Constituent Assembly a one year extension to complete the constitution drafting process. P.M. Nepal cannot take blame for any of these setbacks, he gave his best shot at the PM´s chair knowing the inherent international geo-strategic tussle that shapes the daily outcome of Nepali politics these days.
In turn, President Yadav must be commended for proving a true hero in consolidating Nepali democracy, siding with no one in accepting Prime Minister Nepal´s resignation. Furthermore, he has already extended the deadline for the political parties to come up with a consensus candidate for PM, if not prove their majority in the Constituent Assembly. How the next Nepal government will be formed given heightened political polarization among the three major parties, CPN-Maoists, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML remains a mathematic mystery for the most avid party Jyotish(astrologer), the last predictor for Nepal´s leaders, though now it is quite certain that Jhala Nath Khanal from the CPN-UML will stake claim to the Premiership with a loosely formed coalition with support from the Maoists and a stream of smaller Mades parties in true majority fashion.
Khanal´s possible elevation to the PM´s post is not the kheer (rice pudding) that NC wants to digest, in particular the sweet toothed Ram Chandra Poudel who has been chosen as the official Premier candidate by his party, with last minute endorsements of Sher Bahadur Deuba and K.B. Gurung. Poudel has tried valiantly to woo the Mades parties into the NC bandwagon but with past broken mistrust this is less likely to happen. His meetings with the UML, representing both Oli and Khanal camps have also fallen on deaf ears. The onus of the position would have ideally been placed on the shoulders of Prachanda, the Chairman of the CPN-M, which is also the largest political party in Nepal´s Constituent Assembly followed by the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. But given Prachanda´s past differences with President Yadav on the Katwal row, it is unlikely he will see himself elected, for which his party has also proposed alternate candidates, most likely Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, just in case, a last minute Terai plus fringe parties´ alliance becomes evident. Neither UML nor NC would support a Maoist led coalition based on their leaders vehement inter-party criticism in the past few weeks.
The fact is, anyone can register their name for PM among the 601 CA members between 10 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on July 20. The list of candidates names will be available at the secretariat at 5:30 p.m. the same day. Theoretically, the highest possibility, despite various Nepali media reportage siding with NC, still belongs to the Maoists who have 237 CA members and need only 64 to cross the magical 301 seats, for which a Terai handicap could prove useful.
Some in the international community are already critical that amidst the battle of wits to become Nepal´s next PM, Nepali political leaders who considered themselves duly elected from among the people have forgotten their basic minimum pledge to sustain Nepali democracy.
Some big unanswered questions still remain so: How will Nepal´s peace process be influenced in the coming year, and who will hold the reign of power long enough to be able to bring it to a successful conclusion? How will the Maoist ex-combatants whose numbers are now presumed between 6000 to 19,000 be integrated and where, if Nepal Army is not the end ground? How will the writing of the new constitution take shape, even though CA members unanimously and hurriedly agreed to come up with a new deadline last week. Overall, how will UNMIN´s role be viewed in regard to the peace process, and what will the future development impact be of a government, that finds it hard to even pass a budget in unanimity ? Hopefully, the next Prime Minister will be a responsible one who believes in the peaceful aspirations of the Nepali people.
As for the UN, it recently clarified its position. According to Farhan Haq, an associate Spokesperson for Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, it would be advantageous for the political parties to avail of the UN Mission in Nepal´s expertise and readiness to support the peace process in order to facilitate completion of its tasks. UNMIN recently presented its timeline, which raised the political ire of the NC and the UML-led Nepal Government for what they consider failing to meet ´the national consensus´ criteria. UNMIN is considered pro-Maoist in tilt by NC and UML. However, according to Haq, UNMIN is apolitical in its bearing. While responding to sharp reactions against the UN 'non-paper' prepared on the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, Haq categorically stated in a recent New York press briefing, that UNMIN´s work was actually based on consultations with the main parties in Nepal and that those consultations took place with the full knowledge of the Government of Nepal. In any case, Nepal´s two diplomatically agile neighbors, India and China, keep a close observance on UNMIN´s role in the Nepali peace process, as much as the US, G-8 lobby which see its much needed presence in the form of an overall referee or mediator to make sure all parties abide in true fairness to the UN´s ideals. In the end, UNMIN cannot be blamed for Nepali politicians not consulting it with regard to the national peace process lest one forget the peace process includes the Maoists.
In the coming period, Nepali people aspire to see a permanent peace in the shortest duration possible. UNMIN has come up with a 60 week time frame, which might not be acceptable to all, but it is taking into consideration the past disagreements and technical delays due to inter-party rift. A Himalayan peace could evolve much faster if all political parties agreed to the basic discussion modalities since only a permanent one can guarantee the future of Nepali democracy. Agreeing to do so, would show the serious commitment of all sides to a national political process that can synchronize the feeling of oneness among all Nepalis, the indigenous and janjatiyas included. It could result in the drafting of a constitution that truly represents the interests of all Nepalis from party loyalists to still a large number of pro-monarchists.
The Nepali peace mandate, besides being UN Security Council endorsed, is to a large extent contingent on the big three and the smaller 22 fringe Nepali political parties agreeing to a plan to address the permanent future of the Maoist ex-combatants many of them under 20. These kids certainly deserve a better and brighter future outside the camps. Most of all they deserve an education so that they can shape their own lives and contribute to Nepal´s future prosperity. This is why it is imperative that the next PM serve as a catalyst to Nepali peace. The preservation of Nepal´s democratic values is becoming crucial for anyone claiming leadership at Singha Darbar, aptly described as the nestling place for Nepali democracy by the late B.P. Koirala. Nepali peace deserves a more permanent berth in Nepali political thinking now.
In turn, President Yadav must be commended for proving a true hero in consolidating Nepali democracy, siding with no one in accepting Prime Minister Nepal´s resignation. Furthermore, he has already extended the deadline for the political parties to come up with a consensus candidate for PM, if not prove their majority in the Constituent Assembly. How the next Nepal government will be formed given heightened political polarization among the three major parties, CPN-Maoists, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML remains a mathematic mystery for the most avid party Jyotish(astrologer), the last predictor for Nepal´s leaders, though now it is quite certain that Jhala Nath Khanal from the CPN-UML will stake claim to the Premiership with a loosely formed coalition with support from the Maoists and a stream of smaller Mades parties in true majority fashion.
Khanal´s possible elevation to the PM´s post is not the kheer (rice pudding) that NC wants to digest, in particular the sweet toothed Ram Chandra Poudel who has been chosen as the official Premier candidate by his party, with last minute endorsements of Sher Bahadur Deuba and K.B. Gurung. Poudel has tried valiantly to woo the Mades parties into the NC bandwagon but with past broken mistrust this is less likely to happen. His meetings with the UML, representing both Oli and Khanal camps have also fallen on deaf ears. The onus of the position would have ideally been placed on the shoulders of Prachanda, the Chairman of the CPN-M, which is also the largest political party in Nepal´s Constituent Assembly followed by the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. But given Prachanda´s past differences with President Yadav on the Katwal row, it is unlikely he will see himself elected, for which his party has also proposed alternate candidates, most likely Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, just in case, a last minute Terai plus fringe parties´ alliance becomes evident. Neither UML nor NC would support a Maoist led coalition based on their leaders vehement inter-party criticism in the past few weeks.
The fact is, anyone can register their name for PM among the 601 CA members between 10 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on July 20. The list of candidates names will be available at the secretariat at 5:30 p.m. the same day. Theoretically, the highest possibility, despite various Nepali media reportage siding with NC, still belongs to the Maoists who have 237 CA members and need only 64 to cross the magical 301 seats, for which a Terai handicap could prove useful.
Some in the international community are already critical that amidst the battle of wits to become Nepal´s next PM, Nepali political leaders who considered themselves duly elected from among the people have forgotten their basic minimum pledge to sustain Nepali democracy.
Some big unanswered questions still remain so: How will Nepal´s peace process be influenced in the coming year, and who will hold the reign of power long enough to be able to bring it to a successful conclusion? How will the Maoist ex-combatants whose numbers are now presumed between 6000 to 19,000 be integrated and where, if Nepal Army is not the end ground? How will the writing of the new constitution take shape, even though CA members unanimously and hurriedly agreed to come up with a new deadline last week. Overall, how will UNMIN´s role be viewed in regard to the peace process, and what will the future development impact be of a government, that finds it hard to even pass a budget in unanimity ? Hopefully, the next Prime Minister will be a responsible one who believes in the peaceful aspirations of the Nepali people.
As for the UN, it recently clarified its position. According to Farhan Haq, an associate Spokesperson for Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, it would be advantageous for the political parties to avail of the UN Mission in Nepal´s expertise and readiness to support the peace process in order to facilitate completion of its tasks. UNMIN recently presented its timeline, which raised the political ire of the NC and the UML-led Nepal Government for what they consider failing to meet ´the national consensus´ criteria. UNMIN is considered pro-Maoist in tilt by NC and UML. However, according to Haq, UNMIN is apolitical in its bearing. While responding to sharp reactions against the UN 'non-paper' prepared on the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, Haq categorically stated in a recent New York press briefing, that UNMIN´s work was actually based on consultations with the main parties in Nepal and that those consultations took place with the full knowledge of the Government of Nepal. In any case, Nepal´s two diplomatically agile neighbors, India and China, keep a close observance on UNMIN´s role in the Nepali peace process, as much as the US, G-8 lobby which see its much needed presence in the form of an overall referee or mediator to make sure all parties abide in true fairness to the UN´s ideals. In the end, UNMIN cannot be blamed for Nepali politicians not consulting it with regard to the national peace process lest one forget the peace process includes the Maoists.
In the coming period, Nepali people aspire to see a permanent peace in the shortest duration possible. UNMIN has come up with a 60 week time frame, which might not be acceptable to all, but it is taking into consideration the past disagreements and technical delays due to inter-party rift. A Himalayan peace could evolve much faster if all political parties agreed to the basic discussion modalities since only a permanent one can guarantee the future of Nepali democracy. Agreeing to do so, would show the serious commitment of all sides to a national political process that can synchronize the feeling of oneness among all Nepalis, the indigenous and janjatiyas included. It could result in the drafting of a constitution that truly represents the interests of all Nepalis from party loyalists to still a large number of pro-monarchists.
The Nepali peace mandate, besides being UN Security Council endorsed, is to a large extent contingent on the big three and the smaller 22 fringe Nepali political parties agreeing to a plan to address the permanent future of the Maoist ex-combatants many of them under 20. These kids certainly deserve a better and brighter future outside the camps. Most of all they deserve an education so that they can shape their own lives and contribute to Nepal´s future prosperity. This is why it is imperative that the next PM serve as a catalyst to Nepali peace. The preservation of Nepal´s democratic values is becoming crucial for anyone claiming leadership at Singha Darbar, aptly described as the nestling place for Nepali democracy by the late B.P. Koirala. Nepali peace deserves a more permanent berth in Nepali political thinking now.
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